Investigating and comparing the trend of declining fertility in Asian countries based on event history analysis

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Department of Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran,Tehran.Iran.

2 PhD student in Demography, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

This study aims to investigate and compare the trend of reduced fertility in Asian countries based on event history analysis during 1970-2019. The method of this study is secondary analysis. Data were analyzed using STATA software. The findings show that between 1974-1970, there were 47 countries at risk, down from 20 in 2015-2019. As of 2019, 58% of Asian countries have Reproduction below replacement level. 50% of Central Asia has achieved Reproduction below replacement level. And although some countries in West Asia with a gap of 20 years, from 1990 onwards Reproduction below replacement level have experienced, the pace of fertility decline in the area above Central Asia. In the Southeast Asian region, between 1974 and 1970, only one country experienced the event, and by 2019-2015, 46 percent of the region's countries had achieved Reproduction below replacement level. South Asian countries have long been a successor to fertility under the 2015-2010 period, and by 2019-2015, 50 percent of the region's countries have experienced the event. As of 2019-2015, 50 percent of the countries in the region have experienced the event. The results of the proportional hazards model showed that the variables of life expectancy at birth, contraceptive methods, inflation, and the crude mortality rate have a significant effect on countries' achievement of fertility below the replacement le Reproduction below replacement level. Different parts of Asia have gone through different trends and paths in terms of fertility convergence.

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